Who runs this outpost, and how
In Bitcoin since the first cycle, investing longer than that. The instruments at the Outpost tell me what the market is doing. This page is how I hunt: I buy support, I buy fear, and I hold through the storms.
How I buy
My roots are in crypto, so I built an iron stomach early. I lean on the chart for timing and I buy when other people want out.
- I buy support. Monthly bands, past cycle lows, old bottoms. That's where a new position starts and a stronghold gets bigger.
- I buy fear. When the Compass reads extreme fear or the VIX spikes, I'm shopping, not running.
- I don't chase. Missed the move? There's always another pullback.
- I don't panic sell. Crypto taught me to sit through 70% drawdowns. A red month isn't a reason.
- Charts first, business second. The chart tells me when. The business tells me if it's worth holding through the storm.
- Find your own conviction. I'll show you what I see on the chart and why. Borrowed conviction sells at the first red candle.
Scouts and strongholds
Most positions start small. A scout is an idea I believe in but haven't earned the right to size up yet. If the chart and the business keep proving me right, I add on pullbacks and let it grow. Some scouts become strongholds.
Strongholds are the few names I'd hold through a bad year. I'd rather add to a stronghold on a dip than sell it on a scare.
Why monthly charts
Monthly charts cut out the noise. One candle a month shows the real trend, and it shows where the big buyers stepped in before.
I hunt around previous cycle lows and monthly support. That's where I go looking for bottoms. It isn't proof the bottom is in, and a price can always fall further than I expect, so I build in pieces instead of all at once.
I still trade, and I post weekly cards too. Monthly is the lens I come back to.
The second check
I run a business, so before a scout becomes a stronghold I check it like an owner would.
- Can it pay its own way? Cash flow, spending, and how growth gets funded. Here's what free cash flow means.
- What is the price asking for? A great company can still be a bad buy at the wrong price.
- What could break it? Too much debt, a rate it depends on, or customers with no reason to stay.
I'm not a fund manager or an analyst. This is how I run my own money.
What I post, and what I don't
- The Monthly Close once a month, plus weekly data cards in between.
- Bottoms, support and fear as I find them on the charts, and the lessons that come with them.
- My own moves with names only. Never sizes, never account values.
Before a card posts, its numbers are checked against a second source.
What the crashes and a business taught me
If they DM you first, it's a scam.A new one every day. Froggy has been here before.
- If they DM you first, it's a scam.
- The daily chart is a mood. The monthly chart is a decision.
- Would you buy the whole company at this price?
- Real investors talk about their mistakes.
- You can be right about the coin and still get wiped out by leverage.
- The hard part was never the buying. It was the waiting.
- When everyone swears they're done forever, that's the sound a bottom makes.
- Decide what “too big” means before the crowd shows up.
- Green candles bring confidence. Red candles bring excuses.